Other than the information I have provided please let me know if there is anything else I may help with.

Required

• Chapter 4 in Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
• Drugova, T., Pozo, V., & Curtis, K. (2018). Forecasting organic wheat prices: Do conventional prices play a role?. Journal of Food Distribution Research, 49(1), 48-55.
• Goodwin, P. (2018). How to respond to a forecasting sceptic. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (48), 13-16.
• Bührig, P., & Wohlrabe, K. (2016). Forecasting revisions of German industrial production. Applied Economics Letters, 23(15), 1062-1064. doi:10.1080/13504851.2015.1133890

Recommended

• Pavelková, D., Homolka, L., Vychytilová, J., Ngo, V. M., Bach, L. T., & Dehning, B. (2018). Passenger car sales projections: Measuring the accuracy of a sales forecasting model 1. Ekonomicky Casopis, 66(3), 227-249.
• Proaño, C. R. (2017). Detecting and predicting economic accelerations, recessions, and normal growth periods in real-time. Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 26-42. doi:10.1002/for.2412
• Chiroma, H., Zavareh, A. A., Baba, M. S., Abubakar, A. I., Ya’u Gital, A., & Zambuk, F. U. (2015). Intelligent decision support systems for oil price forecasting. International Journal of Information Science & Management, 47-59. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Haruna_Chiroma/publication/279517640_Intelligent_Decision_Support_Systems_for_Oil_Price_Forecasting/links/5594968508ae793d13798fe7/Intelligent-Decision-Support-Systems-for-Oil-Price-Forecasting.pdf

Module 3: Critical Thinking

• Points 100
• Submitting a file upload

Critical Thinking Assignment (100 Points)

Important! Read First

Choose one of the following two assignments to complete this week. Do not do both assignments. Identify your assignment choice in the title of your submission.

Common Instructions for both Options #1 and #2: Operations Management Forecasting

1. Access the Pearson MyOMLab per the instructions located in the Course Information folder, titled: MyOMLab Student Guide. Carefully review the simulation’s introductory information and instructions as the results will influence your grade by 10%. After completing the simulation, capture a screen image of your final simulation results, which are to be included in your critical thinking operations management assignment as an appendix item.
2. The operations management forecasting assignment content must include the following:

• Introduction: Explain the purpose or thesis of the paper, and explain how the body of the paper is arranged to support the purpose of the paper.
• Provide a brief definition of operations management forecasting and identify why it is important in an organization’s operations.
• Provide a brief overview of the forecasting simulation.
• Describe your strategy for performing the forecasting simulation.
• Describe at least three operations management forecasting methods, principles, or techniques experienced in the forecasting simulation.
• Itemize at least three lessons learned from the forecasting simulation.
• Conclusion: Present a recap of key points and summary of main emphasis without repeating verbatim and exclusive of new information.
• References: Support your paper with your textbook and at least three scholarly, peer-reviewed references. Use current sources, not older than five years. The CSU-Global Library is a good place to find these references.
• Appendix: Forecasting simulation results. The appendix page should be its own page after your reference page, with the header: Appendix—with your screenshot pasted below.

Submit your Critical Thinking assignment document(s) to the module submissions area established for this purpose. Per the assignment rubric, a portion of your evaluation is based on your simulation results.

Option #1: Operations Management Forecasting Paper

This Critical Thinking assignment option consists of two activities:

1. Performing the Pearson MyOMLab Forecasting Simulation, examining the results, and identifying lessons learned. Please adhere to the detailed instructions contained in the Common Instructions for both Options #1 and #2: Operations Management Forecasting
2. A written operations management forecasting paper.

• Your report will require a structure that includes a strong title, followed by an introductory paragraph which generates interest and includes a thesis and mapping of what is to come.
• Each of the sections should use appropriate APA headings, including a conclusion section.
• Make sure that the body sections address each of the previous bullets.

Submission Requirements:

• Your well-written paper should be three to four pages in length not including the required cover and references pages.

• Format your paper according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing & APA (Links to an external site.).

Option #2: Operations Management Forecasting Presentation

This Critical Thinking assignment option consists of two activities:

1. Performing the Pearson MyOMLab Forecasting Simulation, examining the results, and identify lessons learned. Please adhere to the detailed instructions contained in the Common Instructions for both Options #1 and #2: Operations Management Forecasting above.
2. Creating a written operations management forecasting presentation.

Submission Requirements:

• Your multimedia-rich operations management forecasting presentation must contain logically-cohesive flow, including audio, video, and graphical content.
• The length of the presentation, in addition to the title and reference portions, should be 10 to 12 slides (must include speaker notes), or five to seven minutes of narrated presentation (must include a transcript).
• Please present your content clearly, concisely, and cohesively.

The presentation may be submitted as a completely self-contained file (e.g., PowerPoint, Prezi, Screencast-o-matic, Knovio, or Loom) or as a link to a hosted internet site.

Rubric

OPS400 Mod 3 CT

OPS400 Mod 3 CT

Criteria	Ratings	Pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Requirements	10.0 to >8.0 pts Meets Expectation Includes all of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 8.0 to >6.0 pts Approaches Expectation Includes most of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 6.0 to >4.0 pts Below Expectation Includes some of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 4.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Includes few of the required components, as specified in the assignment.	10.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Content	20.0 to >16.0 pts Meets Expectation Demonstrates strong or adequate knowledge of the materials; correctly represents knowledge from the readings and sources. 16.0 to >12.0 pts Approaches Expectation Some significant but not major errors or omissions in demonstration of knowledge. 12.0 to >8.0 pts Below Expectation Major errors or omissions in demonstration of knowledge. 8.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Fails to demonstrate knowledge of the materials.	20.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Critical Analysis	20.0 to >16.0 pts Meets Expectation Provides a strong critical analysis and interpretation of the information given. 16.0 to >12.0 pts Approaches Expectation Some significant but not major errors or omissions in analysis and interpretation. 12.0 to >8.0 pts Below Expectation Major errors or omissions in analysis and interpretation. 8.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Fails to provide critical analysis and interpretation of the information given.	20.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Forecast Simulation Performance	20.0 to >16.0 pts Meets Expectation Performed the entire simulation with the MAPE outcome at or below 23% 16.0 to >12.0 pts Approaches Expectation Performed the entire simulation with the MAPE outcome above 23% and at or below 28%. 12.0 to >8.0 pts Below Expectation Performed the entire simulation with the MAPE outcome above 28% and at or below 32%. 8.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Performed at least a portion of the simulation with the MAPE outcome above 32%.	20.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Sources / Examples	15.0 to >12.0 pts Meets Expectation Sources or examples meet required criteria and are well chosen to provide substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. 12.0 to >9.0 pts Approaches Expectation Sources or examples meet required criteria but are less‐than adequately chosen to provide substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. 9.0 to >6.0 pts Below Expectation Sources or examples meet required criteria but are poorly chosen to provide substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. 6.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Source or example selection and integration of knowledge from the course is clearly deficient.	15.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Demonstrates college-level proficiency in organization, grammar, and style.	10.0 to >8.0 pts Meets Expectation Project is clearly organized, well written, and in proper essay format as outlined in the assignment. Strong sentence and paragraph structure; few errors in grammar and spelling. 8.0 to >6.0 pts Approaches Expectation Project is fairly well organized and written, and is in proper essay format as outlined in the assignment. Reasonably good sentence and paragraph structure; significant number of errors in grammar and spelling. 6.0 to >4.0 pts Below Expectation Project is poorly organized; does not follow proper essay format. Inconsistent to inadequate sentence and paragraph development; numerous errors in grammar and spelling. 4.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Project is not organized or well written, and is not in proper essay format. Poor quality work; unacceptable in terms of grammar and spelling.	10.0 pts
This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Demonstrates proper use of APA style.	5.0 to >4.0 pts Meets Expectation Project contains proper APA formatting, according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA, with no more than one significant error. 4.0 to >3.0 pts Approaches Expectation Few errors in APA formatting, according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA, with no more than two to three significant errors. 3.0 to >2.0 pts Below Expectation Significant errors in APA formatting, according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA, with four to five significant errors. 2.0 to >0 pts Limited Evidence Numerous errors in APA formatting, according to the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA, with more than five significant errors.	5.0 pts
Total Points: 100.0

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